Silver Industry Report
September 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -1.7% | 1.8% | 23000 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0% | -1.1900 |
| first_quart | -0.3% | 2.6% | 116000 | 0.0 | 1.09 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.162 | 0.000 | 0% | -0.3590 |
| median | -0.1% | 3.3% | 422000 | 0.0 | 2.67 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0% | 0.0529 |
| mean | -0.1% | 3.4% | 872000 | 22.4 | 3.23 | 0.354 | 22.8 | 0.253 | 0.152 | 0.3% | 0.0581 |
| third_quart | 0.2% | 4% | 1360000 | 24.7 | 4.74 | 0.000 | 16.5 | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0% | 0.4340 |
| max | 1.1% | 8.4% | 5600000 | 1470.0 | 17.00 | 5.390 | 351.0 | 1.250 | 1.000 | 6% | 1.6400 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 3, mtry: 5
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.2905
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.5287
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 3, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.0057
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0097
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAG | 2021 Q2 | $19.8 | 7.26% | 56.21% |
| ASM | 2021 Q2 | $1.27 | 0.79% | -26.06% |
| FSM | 2021 Q2 | $6.62 | -10.63% | 28.23% |
| SVM | 2021 Q2 | $5.8 | -33.98% | -47.04% |
| EXK | 2021 Q2 | $6.25 | -37.6% | -33.36% |
| PAAS | 2021 Q2 | $32.22 | -40.82% | -40.45% |
| AG | 2021 Q2 | $16.32 | -45.79% | -19.31% |
