Silver Industry Report

September 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -1.7% 1.8% 23000 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.0 0.000 0.000 0% -1.1900
first_quart -0.3% 2.6% 116000 0.0 1.09 0.000 0.0 0.162 0.000 0% -0.3590
median -0.1% 3.3% 422000 0.0 2.67 0.000 0.0 0.250 0.000 0% 0.0529
mean -0.1% 3.4% 872000 22.4 3.23 0.354 22.8 0.253 0.152 0.3% 0.0581
third_quart 0.2% 4% 1360000 24.7 4.74 0.000 16.5 0.350 0.000 0% 0.4340
max 1.1% 8.4% 5600000 1470.0 17.00 5.390 351.0 1.250 1.000 6% 1.6400



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 3, mtry: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.2905
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.5287


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 3, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0057
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0097




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
MAG 2021 Q2 $19.8 7.26% 56.21%
ASM 2021 Q2 $1.27 0.79% -26.06%
FSM 2021 Q2 $6.62 -10.63% 28.23%
SVM 2021 Q2 $5.8 -33.98% -47.04%
EXK 2021 Q2 $6.25 -37.6% -33.36%
PAAS 2021 Q2 $32.22 -40.82% -40.45%
AG 2021 Q2 $16.32 -45.79% -19.31%